Does opening options-flow pressure predict short-horizon direction? Four representations tested so far: aggregate net premium, aggressor-partitioned flow, cross-sectional ranking, and extreme premium bursts. All null. The family-level conclusion at this point in the ledger is a clean efficiency result: opening premium flow, in every aggregate representation tried, carries no short-horizon directional information at this granularity. Further representations of the broader flow question publish as the ledger releases.
Extreme options premium bursts are not followed by drift in the burst direction: 0.32 basis points over the next fifteen minutes, across 3,341 events.
t = 0.69 · p = 0.51
Ranking mega-caps by their opening options pressure did not rank their subsequent returns: a 2.8 basis point spread that permutation puts squarely in the noise.
t = 0.25 · p = 0.80
Separating buyer-initiated from seller-initiated opening premium did not rescue the directional claim: the sharper measure is null too, and marginally the wrong way.
t = -0.56 · p = 0.61
Opening options premium pressure did not predict the rest of the session's return on the two index proxies: a clean null on the aggregate representation.
t = 1.57 · p = 0.13
One email per batch of experiments, across every program the lab is running.