The lab's core program: build a point-in-time fair-volatility forecast for the rest of the session and ask whether it carries information the option market's own pricing does not. The opening results establish the instrument and its first confirmed inputs: the morning implied-volatility level predicts the rest of the day beyond realized vol (the deliberate textbook calibration), and the cross-sectional structure of relative IV carries name-level information of its own. The assembly of a full forecast, and the benchmark tests that ask whether it beats what option prices already know, publish as the ledger releases.
Remove the market-wide volatility level and relative implied volatility still predicts relative afternoon realized vol: the cross-section carries information of its own.
t = 3.94 · p = 0.002
Morning implied volatility predicts rest-of-day realized volatility beyond morning realized vol: the instrument's calibration check on a textbook effect.
t = 5.52 · p = 0.001
One email per batch of experiments, across every program the lab is running.